Grid Risk Calculator
Direct answer
The Grid Risk Calculator shows the worst case after price breaks below the range: the fully-filled average cost equals the arithmetic mean of buy levels, floating loss is measured against it, and the recovery rise is average cost ÷ price − 1.
The Grid Risk Calculator focuses on the worst case once price leaves the range: when price breaks below the lower bound, what the average cost is after all grids fill, the floating loss at the lower bound and at your stop price, and the rise needed from the stop price back to cost.
Three numbers answer one question: if the market turns against you, how much can this grid lose and how far must price climb to recover?
Grid Risk Calculator
Result
All figures follow the assumptions on this page and are for reference only.
- Avg. cost when fully filled
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- Capital per grid
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- Floating loss at lower
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- Loss rate at lower
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- Floating loss at stop
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- Loss rate at stop
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- Rise needed to break even
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- Break-even level (avg cost)
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Key data & facts
- Average cost when fully filled
- AvgCost = Σ(buy level prices) ÷ grid countWith equal capital per grid this equals the arithmetic mean of buy levels
- Floating loss
- Loss(P) = (P ÷ AvgCost − 1) × Capital
- Recovery rise
- RiseNeeded = AvgCost ÷ P − 1
- Example: range 2500–3500, 50 grids
- Average cost ≈ 2990 USDTAt 2250 the loss is ~24.7% and the recovery rise ~32.9%
What is the Grid Risk Calculator?
Grid risk management hinges on three numbers: the average cost when fully filled (your cost line), the worst-case floating loss, and the rebound needed to recover.
This tool shows them together as the basis for setting stops and sizing the grid.
How to use it
- Enter the range, grid count, capital and an assumed stop price.
- Click Calculate to see the fully-filled average cost, loss at the lower bound and loss at the stop price.
- Check the rise needed to break even and whether such a rebound is realistic.
- Change the stop price or grid count to compare worst cases.
Formulas
AvgCost = Σ(buy level prices) ÷ grid count
With equal capital per grid, the weighted average equals the arithmetic mean of buy levels.
Loss(P) = (P ÷ AvgCost − 1) × Capital RiseNeeded = AvgCost ÷ P − 1
Worked example
Range 2500–3500 with 50 grids: buy levels run 2500 to 3480, averaging about 2990 USDT. If price falls to 2250 after a breakout, the loss is about 24.7%; price must rise ~32.9% from 2250 to return to 2990.
That asymmetry — a 24.7% loss needs a 32.9% gain — is the mathematical reason grids recover slowly after deep declines.
Practical tips
- Set the stop where you can actually execute. After a range break the grid may be fully filled; stopping requires manual action or exchange conditional orders.
- Measure risk by the recovery rise. The larger the required rebound, the more fragile the grid is to one-way declines.
FAQ
Why is the average cost near the middle of the range?
With equal capital and arithmetic levels, the fully-filled average cost sits around the range mid-point. A narrower range puts it closer to the price where you started.
A 20% loss needs what gain to recover?
About 25%. Losses and required gains are asymmetric: a loss d needs a gain of d/(1−d). That is why the recovery rise exceeds the loss rate.
When is a grid's risk acceptable?
When the floating loss at your stop price stays within your tolerance AND the required rebound has actually occurred in that market's history. Both must hold.
Sources & references
- What Is a Drawdown in Finance?Investopedia
- What Is Volatility?Investopedia